Reasoning in a complex, dynamic, world

I’m publishing what might seem an eclectic mix of stuff here, so I’ve started with something of a Rosetta Stone:

Conventional models tend to ignore potential long-term changes.
How models may relate to reality. Peter Allen

This is almost self-explanatory: most of our reasoning habits are okay in the short term, but may not be appropriate for the long-term.

A point to note is that sometimes ‘the long term’ can rush upon us. It is sometimes said that the best we can do is to reason for the short term, and respond and adapt to the long-term changes as they arise. But is this good enough? Can we do better?

More on this in some of the other pages. For now, trust me: they are related.

Dave Marsay

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About Dave Marsay
Mathematician with an interest in 'good' reasoning.

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