Hercock’s Cohesion

Robert G. Hercock Cohesion: The Making of Society 2009.

Having had Robert critique some of my work, I could hardly not comment on this think-piece. It draws on modern complexity theory and a broad view of relevant historical examples and current trends to create a credible narrative. For me, his key conclusions are:

  1. “[G]iven a sufficient degree of communication … the cooperative assembly of [a cohesive society] is inevitable.”
  2. To be cohesive, a society should be “global politically federated, yet culturally diverse”.

The nature of communication envisaged seems to be indicated by:

 “From smoke signals, and the electric telegraph, through to fibre optics, and the Internet … the manifest boom in all forms of communication is bringing immense capabilities to form new social collectives and positive cultural developments.”

 I ‘get’ that increasing communication will bring immense capabilities to support the cooperative assembly of a cohesive global society, but am not convinced the effective exploitation of the capability in this way is inevitable. In chapter 6 (‘Bridges’) Robert says:

 “The truth is we now need a new shared set of beliefs. … Unfortunately, no one appears to have the faintest idea what such a common set of beliefs should look like, or where it might arise from, or who has responsibility to make it happen, or how, etc. Basically this is the challenge of the 21st century; we stand or fall on this battle for a common cultural nexus.”  

 This is closer to my own thinking.

People have different understandings of terms like ‘federated’. My preference is for subsidiarity: the idea that one has the minimum possible governance, with reliance on the minimum possible shared beliefs and common cultures. In complex situations these minimum levels are not obvious or static, so I would see an effective federations as engaging tentatively at a number of ‘levels’, ‘veering and hauling’ between them, and with strong arrangements for ‘horizon scanning’ and debate with the maximum possible diversity of views. Thus there would be not only cultural diversity but ‘viewpoint diversity within federated debate’. What is needed seems somewhat like Holism and glocalization 

Thinking of the EU, diversity of monetary policy might make the EU as an institution more cohesive while making their economies less cohesive. To put it another way, attempts to enforce cohesion at the monetary level can threaten cohesion at the political level. So it is not clear to me that one can think of a society as simply ‘being cohesive’. Rather it should be cohesive in the sense appropriate to its current situation. Cohesion should be ‘adaptive’. Leadership and vision seem to be required to achieve this: it is not automatic.

In the mid 80s many of those involved in the development of communications technologies thought that they would promote world peace, sometimes citing the kind of works that Robert does. I had and have two reservations. Firstly, the quality of communications matters. Thus [it was thought] one probably needed digital video, mobile phones and the Internet, all integrated in way that was easy to use. [The Apple Macintosh made this credible.] Thus, if there was a clash between Soviet secret police and Jewish protestors [common at the time], the whole world could take an informed view, rather than relying on the media. [This was before the development of video faking capabilities]. Secondly, while this would destabilize autocratic regimes, it was another issue as to what would happen next. It was generally felt that the only possible ‘properly’ stable states were democratic, but views differed on whether such states would necessarily stabilize.

Subsequent experience, such as the Arab spring, support the view that YouTube and Facebook undermine oppressive regimes. But I remain unconvinced that ‘the cooperative assembly of [a cohesive society] is inevitable’ in Africa, the Middle East,Russia or South America’, or that more communications would make it so. It certainly seems that if the process is inevitable, it can be much too slow.

My own thinking in the 80s was informed by the uncertainty and complexity theory Keynes, Whitehead, Turing and Smuts, which predates that which Robert cites, and which informed the development of the United Nations as a part of ‘the cooperative assembly of a cohesive global society’. Robert seems to be arguing that according to modern theory such efforts were not necessary, but even so they may have been beneficial if all they did was speed the process up by a few generations. Moreover, the EU example seems to support my view that these theories are usefully more advanced than their contemporary counter-parts.

The financial crash of 2008 occurred part way through the writing of the book. Like any history, explanations differ, and Robert gives a credible account in terms of modern complexity theory. But logic teaches us to be cautious about such post-hoc explanations. It seems to me that Keynes’ theory explains it adequately, and having been developed before the event should be given more credence.

 Robert seems to regard the global crash of 2008 as a result of a loss of cohesion :

“When economies, states and societies lose their cohesion, people suffer; to be precise a lot of people end up paying the cost. In the recession of 2008/09 … “

But Keynes shows how it is cohesion (‘sticking together’) that causes global crashes. Firstly, in a non-globalized economy a crash in one part can be compensated for by the stability of another part, a bit like China saving the situation, but more so. Secondly, (to quote Patton) ‘if everyone is thinking alike then no-one is thinking’. Once group-think is established ‘expectations’ become ossified, and the market is disconnected from reality.

Robert’s notion of cohesion is “global politically federated, yet culturally diverse”. One can see how in 2008 and currently in the EU (and North Africa and elsewhere) de jure and de-facto regulatory structures change, consistent with Robert’s view. But according to Keynes this is a response to an actual or potential crisis, rather than a causative factor. One can have a chain of  crises in which political change leads to emergent social or economic problems, leading to political change and so-on. Robert seems to suppose that this must settle down into some stable federation. If so then perhaps only the core principles will be stable, and even these might need to be continually reinterpreted and refreshed, much as I have tried to do here.

On a more conceptual note, Robert has the qualifies the conclusion with “The evidence from all of the fields considered in this text suggests …”.  But the conclusion could only be formally sustained by an argument employing induction. Now, if improved communications is really going to change the world so much then it will undermine the basis of any induction. (In Whitehead’s terms, induction only works with an epoch but here the epoch is changed.) The best one could say would be that on current trends a move towards greater cohesion appears inevitable. This is a more fundamental problem than only considering evidence from a limited range of fields. More evidence from more fields could not overcome this problem.

Dave Marsay

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About Dave Marsay
Mathematician with an interest in 'good' reasoning.

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