Anyone for Tennis?

An example of Knightian uncertainty?

Sam, a Norwegian statistician, and Gina, a Moldovian game-theorist, have just met on holiday and are playing tennis. Sam knows that in previous games Gina has taken 70% of the opportunities to ‘go to the net’, and out of 10 opportunities in their games far, has gone to the net 7 times.

What is the probability that Gina will go to the net at the next opportunity? (And what is your reasoning? You may consult my notes on probability.)

More, similar, puzzles here.

Dave Marsay

Advertisements

About Dave Marsay
Mathematician with an interest in 'good' reasoning.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: