Anyone for Tennis?

An example of Knightian uncertainty?

Sam, a Norwegian statistician, and Gina, a Moldovian game-theorist, have just met on holiday and are playing tennis. Sam knows that in previous games Gina has taken 70% of the opportunities to ‘go to the net’, and out of 10 opportunities in their games far, has gone to the net 7 times.

What is the probability that Gina will go to the net at the next opportunity? (And what is your reasoning? You may consult my notes on probability.)

More, similar, puzzles here.

Dave Marsay

About Dave Marsay
Mathematician with an interest in avoiding 'bad' reasoning.

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