May 18, 2012 3 Comments
In English speaking countries the Rev. Thomas Bayes is credited with the notion that all kinds of uncertainty can be represented by numbers, such as P(X) and P(X|Y), that can be combined just as one can combine probabilities for gambling (e.g. Bayes’ rule).
You are told that one of these is true:
- Bayes was in the habit of attending the local Magistrates Court and making an assessment of the defendant’s guilt based on his appearance, and then comparing it with the verdict.
- Bayes performed an experiment in which he blindly tossed balls on to a table while an assistant told him whether the ball was to the right or left of the original.
Assign probabilities to these statements. (As usual, I’d be interested in your assumptions, theories etc. If you don’t have any, try here.)
More similar puzzles here.