The origins of Bayes’ insights: a puzzle

In English speaking countries the Rev. Thomas Bayes is credited with the notion that all kinds of uncertainty can be represented by numbers, such as P(X) and P(X|Y), that can be combined just as one can combine probabilities for gambling (e.g. Bayes’ rule).

You are told that one of these is true:

  1. Bayes was in the  habit of attending the local Magistrates Court and making an assessment of the defendant’s guilt based on his appearance, and then comparing it with the verdict.
  2. Bayes performed an experiment in which he blindly tossed balls on to a table while an assistant told him whether the ball was to the right or left of the original.

Assign probabilities to these statements. (As usual, I’d be interested in your assumptions, theories etc. If you don’t have any, try here.) 

More similar puzzles here.

Dave Marsay

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About Dave Marsay
Mathematician with an interest in 'good' reasoning.

3 Responses to The origins of Bayes’ insights: a puzzle

  1. Reblogged this on Get "fit for randomness" [with Ontonix UK] and commented:
    Of course AIDA makes sense but focus on “S” to reduce any reliance upon this form of Push Marketing.

    S for Satisfy.

    In the end, after the sale is made, you want to satisfy your prospect, who is now a customer. You want to deliver exactly what you promised (or even more), by the date you promised, in the manner you promised. In short, you want to give him every reason in the world to trust you the next time you sell him a back-end offer. And of course you’d rather he doesn’t return the product (although if he does, you also execute your return policy as promised).

  2. Reblogged this on Get "fit for randomness" [with Ontonix UK] and commented:
    Of course AIDA makes sense but focus on “S” to reduce any reliance upon this form of Push Marketing.

    S for Satisfy.

    In the end, after the sale is made, you want to satisfy your prospect, who is now a customer. You want to deliver exactly what you promised (or even more), by the date you promised, in the manner you promised. In short, you want to give him every reason in the world to trust you the next time you sell him a back-end offer. And of course you’d rather he doesn’t return the product (although if he does, you also execute your return policy as promised).

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