Intelligence-led: Intelligent?

In the UK, after various scandals in the 90s, it seemed that horizon scanning for potential problems, such as the BSE crisis, ought to be more intelligent and even ‘intelligence-led’ or ‘evidence-led’ as against being prejudice or spin-led. Listening to ministerial pronouncements on the horse-meat scandal I wonder if  the current so-called ‘intelligence-led’ approach is actually intelligent.

Suppose that the house next door becomes a refuge for drug-addicts. Which of the following are intelligent? Intelligence-led?

  1. Wait until there is a significant increase in crime locally – or until you get burgled – and then up-rate your security.
  2. Review security straight away.

In case you hadn’t guessed, this relates to my blog, and the question of what you mean by ‘information’ and ‘evidence’.

Does anyone have a definition of what is meant by ‘intelligence-led’ in this context?

Dave Marsay

P.S. I have some more puzzles on uncertainty.


Coin toss puzzle

This is intended as a counter-example to the view, such as Savage’s, that uncertainty can, in practice, be treated as numeric probability.

You have a coin that you know is fair. A known trickster (me?) shows you what looks like an ordinary coin and offers you a choice of the following bets:

  1. You both toss your own coins. You win if they match, otherwise they win.
  2. They toss their coin while you call ‘heads’ or ‘tails’.

Do you have any preference between the two bets? Why? And …

In each case, what is the probability that their coin will come up heads?

Dave Marsay


In (1) suppose that you can arrange things so that the trickster cannot tell how your coin will land in time to influence their coin, so that the probability of a match is definitely 0.5, with no uncertainty. The situation in (2) can be similar, except that your call replaces the toss of a fair coin.

See Also

Other uncertainty puzzles .