Broader uncertainty:-

It is implicit in much of the work on numeric probability that – in so far as they fall short of their aim of reducing uncertainty to a number – uncertainty appears to be more than just a number. Keynes developed some explicit (mathematical) theories of non-numeric probabilities. Ellsberg showed that (contrary to what some psychologists think) people can make effective assessments in the face of these broader uncertainties.

See also ‘rationality and uncertainty’ and Frank Knight.

Dave Marsay

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