Some puzzles intended to illustrate some topics in reasoning, mainly uncertainty.
- Multiple choice paradox: illustrating non-numeric probabilties.
- Urns with uncertain contents: is the likelihood always precise?
- Tennis: is ‘probability is just a number’ valid for games?
- Medical treatment: does knowing that a disease has 10 different variants make a difference?
- Bayes’ inspiration: from observing a court or experiments with balls?
- Car choice: to what extent should you be influenced by general statistics?
- Coin toss: can tossing a coin be better than having a choice?
- Intelligence-led: Intelligent? Are we getting it right?
- Unbirthday ‘paradox’. Can some standard assumptions be biased?
- Cab accident. Are the usual assumptions always justified?
- Disease. Should you always take medical statistics at face value?
- Flood risk. Should you assume that your insurance company has calculated your premium using the appropriate formula?
- Sweets. A popular puzzle, with a critique of the principle of indifference and Bayes’ rule.
I intend to produce more. Suggestions welcome, either for puzzles or topics.
The sleeping beauty problem (strictly for the brave).