Emergence is a substantive transformation. It is not just an improbable event in a given probability distribution, it is a change in the overall probabilistic set-up: a violation of Bayes’ rule.
- Bergson gives a metaphysical view, building on Kant.
- Smuts gives overviews, developing ideas from Kant and Bergson.
- Whitehead gives a more logical overview from the same grounds. Smuts and Whitehead thought that their ideas corresponded. (Keynes was a common link.)
- Prigogine developed the ideas further, displaying plausible mechanisms.
My notes on rationality and uncertainty.