This is a probabilistic IQ test, created by No Ordinary Games.
Human intuition when it comes to questions of probability seems to be fundamentally flawed. Cognitive biases of all sorts awaken at even the simplest hint of randomness, especially when time pressure is added to the mix.
This massive blind spot is often attributed to poor mathematical education. But we could find no evidence to back that claim up. So we thought we'd test it ourselves, with your help. This test is designed to measure the accuracy of your probabilistic intuition. Once the results are in, we will examine if formal mathematical training has an effect on the accuracy of one's probabilistic fast thinking. So, no matter what your academic background is, take the test and help us out. The odds are you'll enjoy it too!
Get comfortable. You 'll need about 1012 mins. You will be presented with a series of hypothetical situations and asked which of the outcomes if any you think is more probable. Read each question twice, slowly and give yourself one minute to consider it and pick an answer. Don't use more than one minute for each question. This is important  just your topofthehead reaction is needed.
Good luck!
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Flip a coin 5 times. Which is more probable?
*
1 point
At some point you'll get the same result at least 3 times in a row
You will NOT get the same result 3 times in a row
It's about 50%  50%
Put nine red balls and one blue ball in an urn. Shuffle and take out 3 balls at random. Which is more probable?
*
1 point
All three balls will be red
One of the three will be blue
It's about 50%  50%
Roll a 6sided die. Then roll a 10sided die. Then roll a 30sided die. Which is more probable?
*
1 point
The three results will be in strictly increasing order
The three results will NOT be in strictly increasing order
It's about 50%  50%
In a continuous series of coin flips, which sequence is more probable to appear first at some point?
*
1 point
The sequence [Heads  Tails]
The sequence [Tails  Tails]
It's about 50%  50%
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