djmarsay
Reasoning about reasoning, mathematically.
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Decision
Howard’s Paradoxes of Rationality
Mechanism Design Theory
Why things go wrong:-
Bobbitt’s Shield
Rittel & Webber’s Dilemmas in Planning
Perrow’s Normal Accidents
Gerstein’s Flirting with Disaster
Essex’s Blunders of UK Government
Rumelt’s Good Strategy Bad Strategy
Confronting Managerialism
Boyd’s Winning and Losing
Rationality and Uncertainty:-
Criticisms of Applied Mathematics:-
Millican’s Hume, Induction and Probability
Owhadi ea’s When Bayesian Inference Shatters
Allen’s Dynamics of Knowledge and Ignorance
Sleeping Beauty
Fitzgibbons’ Foundations of Keynes’ economics
O’Neil’s Weapons of Maths Destruction
Evans’ Safer with Gamblers
Freedman’s Causal Inference
Is “Mathematical Science” An Oxymoron?
Uncertainty Communication:-
Smith’s Mad Cows and Ecstasy
Spiegelhalter’s Communication
Whitehead’s Adventures of Ideas
Critical Thinking
Kant’s Categorical Imperative
Guidance:-
Dunn’s Context Validation
EU’s Managing Complexity
Senge’s Fifth Discipline
Marchau’s Deep Uncertainty
Omand’s Crises
Kaplan’s Framing Contests
Walker’s Defining Uncertainty
Finkelstein’s long game
Defoe’s Journal
Debate
Economics Debate:-
Kay and King’s Coronavirus
Cable’s Storm
Kay and King’s Radical Uncertainty
Lawson’s Mathematics Ideology
Manchester’s Econocracy
Mazzucato’s Big Con
Stern’s Time for Action
New Economics Curriculum?
Mildenhall’s Actuarial Geometry
Humanities debates:-
Hudson’s Collaborations
Morgan’s Paradigms
The Rationality Crisis
Avigad’s Does philosophy still need mathematics and vice versa
Beistegui’s Work and Idea
Bentham’s Morality
Gray’s Enlightenment
Hayek’s Counter-Revolution
Turing’s Turing Decoded
Vickers’ Undirected Soc.
Vickers’ The Needs of Men
Vickers’ The Criteria of Well-being
Vickers’ Is Adaptability Enough?
Vickers’ Predicament … Society
Whitman’s Carnage
Voting, mathematics, critical thinking
Wales’ Harmony
Rand’s Fountainhead
Baggini’s How the World Thinks
Dunbar’s Trouble with Science
Mannheim’s Man and Society
Seeing Like a State
Wheatley’s Leadership
Maths and Stats debates:-
Gelman’s Rejoinder
Mazzocco’s Inaugural Lecture (Birmingham)
ASA’s Significance and Replicability
Mayo’s Statistical Inference
Brieman’s Statistical Modelling
Barnard et al’s Foundations of Stats. Inference
Mayo & Spanos Error Statistics
Science debates:-
Mandelbrot and Taleb’s Exceptions
Tegmark’s Mathematical Universe
Carroll’s Eternity
Cartwright’s Philosophy of Science
Fuchs ea QBism
Sense-Making debates:-
Rakow on Knight’s Risk …
Cohen’s Irrationality
Cynefin’s Estuarine
French’s Cynefin and Analysis
Gebser’s Origin
Lipton’s Inference
Masch’s Works
Maturana & Varela
Chaos’ Dynamic Gambles
du Sautoy’s Creative Code
Soros’ Fallability
Wicked Uncertainty
Kuper’s Turbulence
Psychology and Uncertainty
Hoel’s Overfitted Brain
Sternberg’s Adaptive Intelligence
UK Defence Applied Research 1945-1990
Hall’s From Risk to Resilience
ISRS’s Digital Resilience
Keynes in Persuasion
Uncertain Epochs
Which Math in Finance?
Economics
Foundations of economics:-
Economics as science?
Expectation and Utility:-
Classic E&U:-
Bernoulli’s Exposition
Friedman ea’s Risky Curves
de Finetti’s Standpoint
Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty and Profit
Davidson’s Swans & Knight
Shackle’s Corpus
Economics e-Journal on Uncertainty:-
Smith’s AI & Economics
Guth ea.’s Coping
Dow’s Diagramme
McNamara’s Implicit Frequency Dependence
Brays’ Rational Expectations
Greenspan’s The Map and the Territory
IKE’s Change and Expectations
McFadden’s Pleasure
Muth’s Rational Expectations
Keynes’ GTE
Keynes’ … Employment
Keynes’ Economics
PostKeynesian
Fitzgibbons’ Foundations of Keynes’ economics
Vercelli’s Keynesian Learning
Davidson’s Post Keynesian Perspective …
Skidelsky’s Return
Solow’s Economic History and Economics
Crisis Economics:-
Kondratiev’s Works
Chang’s 23 Things
Keen ea’s Estimates of economic and environmental damages
King’s End of Alchemy
BA, Why Didn’t Anybody Notice?
Brown’s Beyond the Crash
Stewarts’ Banks crash
Roubini’s Crisis Economics
Sornette’s … Prediction of Crises
Wolf’s Shifts and Shocks
Economics as Physics:-
Ball’s Critical Mass
Lo & Mueller’s Physics Envy
Ormerod’s Beyond Nudge
Ormerod’s Positive Linking
Schinckus’ … econophysics
Sornette’s Critical market crashes
Shaw & Schofield’s Returns
Consequences of economics:-
Milanovic’s Inequality
Keynes’ Economic Consequences …
WEA’s Economics Curriculum
Keynes’ Essays in Biography
Bronk’s Romantic Economist
Logics
Logic Classics:-
Gettier’s ‘Knowledge’
Locke’s Essay on Human Understanding
Locke’s Epistle
Locke’s Essay: Prologue
Locke’s Essay: Books I, II
Locke’s Essay: Book III
Locke’s Essay: Book IV
Locke’s Essay: Commentaries
Kant’s Critique of Pure Reason
Locke’s Essay
Mill’s System of Logic
Dodgson’s Symbolic Logic
Ayer’s Language, Truth and Logic
Russell’s Human Knowledge
Russell’s Postulates of Inference
Mathematical Logic:-
Crossley’s Logic
Turing’s Thesis
Boole’s Laws of Thought
Fitch’s Logical Analysis
Foucault’s Archaeology of Knowledge
Freedman’s Issues
Millican’s Logic
Marriage
Toulmin’s Uses of Argument
Maths
About mathematics:-
Russell’s Problems of Philosophy
Dantzig’s Number
Berkeley’s Analyst
Russell’s Logical Analysis
Hardy’s Apology
Blackwell’s Philosophy
Roux’s Forms of Mathematization
Principia Mathematica
Byers’ How Mathematicians Think
Polkinghorne’s Meaning in Maths
Schwartz’s Pernicious Influence of Mathematics
Maths Subjects:-
Category Theory:-
Chalkdust’s Category Theory
Cheng’s Higher-dimensional category theory
Complexity Maths:-
IMA: Complex Systems
Uncertainty Maths:-
Probability:-
Probability Classics:-
Bayes’ Essay …
Jeffreys’ Probability
Jaynes’ Probability Theory
Kolmogorov’s Foundations of Probability
Laplace’s … Essay on Probabilities
Ramsey’s … probability
Keynes’ Ramsey as an Philosopher
Savage’s Foundations of Statistics
RSS’s Guides
Interpreting Bayes’ Rule
Blackwell ea’s Merging of Opinions
Dawid’s Synthesis
Fisher’s … Natural Sciences
Lindley’s Bayesian thoughts
Lindley’s Philosophy of Statistics
Edwards ea’s Bayesian Stats. Inf.
O’Hagan’s Fractional Bayes Factors …
Russell’s Probability
Savage’s Tendencies …
Broader uncertainty:-
Binmore’s Large World Decisions
Quasi Bayesian:-
Matthews’ Chancing it
MB & DS’s Norm Chronicles
Norm Chronicles
The Norm Chronicles
Pearl’s Causal Sure-Thing Principle
Blackett’s ‘Black Swans’
Gelman’s Analysis
Gelman ea’s Philosophy
Kadane’s Principles of Uncertainty
Ord ea’s Probing the Improbable
Taleb’s Black Swan
Smith’s Bayesian Decision Analysis
Smith’s Consistency
Don’t know, can’t know
Taleb’s Antifragility
Walley’s Statistical Reasoning
Hand’s Improbability Principle
Keynes’ Treatise
Comments on Keynes’ Treatise
Brady on Keynes’ Treatise:-
Brady+ on Keynes’ Interval Probability
Brady on Keynes’ Theoretical Approach
Dow’s Uncertainty
Gillies’ Uncertainty in Keynes
Keynes and Tinbergen
Ramsey on Keynes’ Treatise
Gerrard’s Ramsey and Keynes
Fusion: Keynes’ Treatise
Induction: Keynes’ Treatise
Principle of Uniformity: Keynes’ Treatise
Decision making: Keynes’ Treatise
Statistical Inference: Keynes’ Treatise
Law of Great Numbers: Keynes’ Treatise
Constructive Theory: Keynes’ Treatise
MacKay’s Mathematical Examples
Binmore’s Rational Decisions
Ellsberg’s Risk …
Ellsberg’s Risk, Ambiguity, and Savage
Hailperin’s Probability Logic
Good’s Good Thinking
Game Theory:-
Grose & Paternotte’s Social Norms
Heap & Varoufakis’s Critical Game Theory
Ellsberg’s duels
Skyrms’ Quasi-Conventions
Nash’s Equilibrium points
von Neumann & Morgenstern
Study Guides:-
Maths in Minutes
Kahn’s Studying Mathematics
Teach Yourself Statistics
Mathematical Modelling:-
Guide to Math Modelling
Rutherford’s Models
Modelling’s Five Ways
Applications of Maths:-
Maths for the Modern Economy
Financial Modellers’ Manifesto
Mathematics in Physics
Luce’s Choice Axiom
AMT Probability and Cryptography
Littlewood’s Dilemma
Pearl’s Simpson’s Paradox
Shannon’s Math. Th.
Science
CSPO’s Crisis in science?
MetaScience:-
Heisenberg’s Concept of Nature
Hertz’s Mechanics
du Sautoy’s What we cannot know
MacKay’s Information, Mechanism and Meaning
Skyrms’ Signals
Tegmark’s Mathematical Universe
Tong’s Integers
Turner et al’s Advancing Constructor Theory
Veigl’s Scientific Stances
Deutsch’s A new way to explain explanation
Deutsch’s Constructors
Deutsch’s Explanations …
Feyerabend’s Realism …
Uncertainty in science and its role in climate
Science Classics:-
Robinson’s Information Sciences
Bateson’s Mind and Nature
Chamberlin’s Method
Eddington’s Physical World
Eddington’s New Pathways
Maki’s Models
Whitehead’s Organisation of Thought
Whitehead’s Science and the Modern World
Kuhn’s Structure of Sci Revolutions
Newton’s Principia
Popper’s Logic of Scientific Discovery
Popper’s Objective Knowledge
Kant’s Prolegomena
White’s Da Vinci: 1st Scientist
Psychology:-
Sheffer’s The Evolutionary Basis of Rigidity
Zeman’s Visual Imagery Vividness
Aesop’s Boy who Cried Wolf
Kahneman et al:-
Kahneman’s Fast and Slow Talk
Gladwell’s Blink
Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow
Kahneman’s Maps of Bounded Rationality
Kahneman’s Psychology for Behavioral Economics
Tversky & Kahneman’s Judgment u Uncertainty
Berkeley’s Human Knowledge
Classics:-
James’ Principles of Psychology
Ellsberg’s Risk, Ambiguity and Decision
Shackle’s Decision, Order and Time
Dunst et al’s Neural Efficiency
The Tipping Point
Isaac & O’Connor’s Discontinuity Theory
Rogers’ Paltering
Tenenbaum’s Mind
Tooby ea.’s First Law of Psychology
Williams ea.’s Hobgoblin
Cosmides & Tooby’s Better than Rational
The Power of Habit
Gigerenzer’s Heuristics
Gigerenzer’s Risk Savvy
Pellicano, Bayes, autism
Postlewaite ea’s Rationality, Uncertainty
Sornette’s Quantum Decision Theory
Complexity:-
AIP’s Climate Chaos
Complexity, discovered complications
Complexity, causality, sense making and strategy
Holland’s Studying CAS
The Tragedy of Super-Wicked Problems
Ritchey’s Morphologies
Takens’ Embedding Theorem
Capra’s Hidden Connections
Emergence:-
Embracing complexity
Sheldrake’s Science Delusion
Allen’s Evolving Complexity
Allen’s Evolution …
Bergson’s Creative Evolution
Prigogine’s From Being to Becoming
Turing’s Morphogenesis
Whitehead’s Process and Reality
Smuts:-
Smuts’ Holism and Evolution
Smuts’ Scientific World-Picture of Today
Sugihara ea’s Detecting Causality …
Beinhocker’s Reflexivity …
Tech
Artifical Intelligence
Ashby’s Works
Dstl’s Human-AI
Kissinger et al’s Metamorphosis
Fry’s Hello World
Kissinger’s How the Enlightenment Ends
O’Neil’s Weapons of Math Destruction
Turing’s Test
Algorithms
Note
About these Posts
Technical details
Guidance on Reasoning
Site Map
Work in Progress
Pragmatism, re-thought
Possible Probabilities
P[ :C]: Elementary Theory
P[ :C]: Change
P[ :C]: Value
Probability Paradoxes
P[ :C]: Games
P[ :C]: Utility
P[ : C]: Possibility Theory
P[ : C]: Applications
Uncertainty and Probability
Glossary
Bibliography
Puzzles:-
Dining Puzzle
Exam Question: Cycling
Black Swans: a puzzle
Exam Question: Weather
Death by Horse-Kick
Probability Question Puzzle
Gym Puzzle
Petty theft
Two Envelopes Puzzle
Suspicious coins
Rainbow puzzle
What is the point of marmalade?
Bayes’ twin puzzle
Holiday Gamble
Catching a bus: a puzzle
Taleb’s Fair Coin
Dividing a cake
Diagnosis
Sweet Puzzle
Two Daughters
Theory and practice
Media
Mathematics and Action
About Dave Marsay
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Comments
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Uncertainty
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choice
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MetaScience:-
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