Media

This is where I put media to share.

Thesis (Maths, Warwick)

On germs ,,, : highly technical, and please be aware that common usage has moved on so, so don’t rely on wikipedia for interpretation. (Unless and until I get around to clarifying some obscure distinctions and changes in common usage.)

SIGPLAN 2000

Paper: Uncertainty in Planning: adapting the framework of game theory as a way of coping with uncertainty using ‘generalized probability’ in cases where conventional ‘probabilistic’ planning is inadequate, with reference to route planning. doi: 10.1.1.26.8920 .

Decision-Making Fundamentals 2004-2008

A report ‘for 9th ICCRTS‘ (2004) was written under contract by a colleague as a contribution to a conference on ‘the power of information-age concepts and technologies’ for UK Dstl. It does not explicitly cite my own work, but it is perhaps worth noting the key assumption that:

It is the [responsibility] of the Superior to direct the Subordinate’s activity and maintain and manage the Context of that activity. It is that of the Subordinate to achieve the directed objective and to conduct any directed activity. 

[Where]

The context of the activity is defined in terms of the location, type of activity, condition or potential
for action of friendly, adversary and neutral assets and of the physical, legal and civic environment.

My contribution to the work was to point out that without this assumption information-age concepts were inapplicable and the associated technologies potentially dangerous. In particular, one clearly needs to take a broader view whenever the objective is to de-escalate any ‘fighting’. (See, for example, Rupert Smith’s Utility of Force.)

ISTAR and C2 – A Holistic View (2006) suggests a ‘Holistic’ approach, as adopted by previous generations, suggests a metaphor to help people ‘get it’, has some potentially inspiring quotes and describes a way of adapting then contemporary ‘best practice’ for analysis in support of decision-making to take account of past lessons-learnt more ‘intelligently’. In particular, it recommends that all those involved should encourage others to tell them anything that does not fit their assumptions, contrary to much established practice.

Complexity concepts for Command and Intelligence (2008) develops the 2006 metaphor for ‘complex situations’ as a way of thinking more broadly about collaborative decision-making, covering problem analysis, multi-hypothesis testing, target identification and classification in situations where thinking too ‘rationally’ in terms of ‘information’ and ‘probability’ as conventionally conceived seems inevitably to lead to confrontation, at least, in any but the simplest situations, and in any-case inhibits de-escalation. This was written for a military audience, but is applicable more widely, e.g. to economies and epidemics. For example, we should be open about our assumptions and open minded to evidence that others regard as anomalous, even if we can ‘explain it away’.

International Collaboration 2009

Enabling State: Collaborating for Success (A collaborative production taking forward some of the above ideas in a wider arena: my main bit is referenced within. It preceded the financial crash, but was published afterwards)

Finance and Economics

IMA Conference (the first) on Mathematics in Finance, Invited talk, April 2013.

Presentation: Marsay slides IMA Conf Fin in Maths, Paper: Marsay paper IMA Conf Fin in Maths .

Describes, for an audience of mathematical modellers, how the previous ideas were ‘made sense of’ and informed UK handling of financial turbulence 2008-20010. It draws attention to Turing’s metaphor of a pendulum with a mouse on it as an antidote to more conventional thinking about ‘complex systems’.

Economics Journal 2016

Decision-Making under Radical Uncertainty: An Interpretation of Keynes’ Treatise

An attempt to relate some of the above ideas in terms of economic theories. In particular, it draws attention to Keynes’ work on uncertainty and the implications for the understanding of his economics.  Still downloading about 30 times a day (Oct 2019).

Speculations on Uncertainty

Generalizing Probability, For comments, please. (Currently lacks detail, footnotes and references – I aim to expand.)

I need to review a lot of the above, to reflect others’ thoughts, and – hopefully – make more sense. But the clues are in my thesis and posts!

Dave Marsay